● Definition of total fertility rate and major contributing factors

○ The total fertility rate is defined as the average number of children that would be born to a woman (aged 15–49) if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years. Therefore, identifying the factors affecting this rate necessitates a critical review of the population and age structure of women of reproductive age, number of births (crude birth rate), number of marriages (crude marriage rate), unmarried rate (percentage of women with a spouse), and childlessness and birth rates of married women.

● Jeonbuk State: rapidly following birth and marriage patterns of metropolitan cities

○ In 2023, Jeonbuk’s total fertility rate was 0.78 with 6,625 births (11th among the nation’s metropolitan cities and provinces). Falling below 1.1 in 2018, the region’s total fertility rate has been the second lowest after Gyeonggi-do for six consecutive years at the provincial level and is currently on par with those of metropolitan cities such as Ulsan, Daejeon, and Gwangju.

○ Following the significantly low number of newborns (15,000) in 2015, the total fertility and crude birth rates in Jeonbuk began plummeting in 2016, practically entering the ultra-low zone.

○ In terms of crude birth and marriage rates, Jeonbuk shows the lowest rates in the nation along with Busan and Gyeongnam

● Factors contributing to Jeonbuk’s low fertility rate 

○ First, an increase in age at first marriage and maternal age has shortened the childbearing period. Second, the proportion of population aged 30–34 (compared to female population of reproductive age) is low, and the unmarried rate of this age group is high. Third, while the birth rate of women in their late 20s and their 30s is the lowest at the provincial level, the birth rate of those in their late 30s is not increasing significantly, placing Jeonbuk at the bottom of the list when compared to other regions. Last, the age-specific breakdown of childless married women of reproductive age reveals that the proportion of those aged 25–29 has sharply increased, followed by those aged 30–34. In short, the declining total fertility rate as well as the delay in childbearing in Jeonbuk can be primarily attributed to the high rate of unmarried women of reproductive age and the rising proportion of childless married women.

● Potential solutions for Jeonbuk’s low birth rate

○ First, the authorities must devise policies to make Jeonbuk attractive to young women aged 20–39 who have a tangible impact on the total fertility rate.

○ Second, given that the rate of unmarried women of reproductive age in Jeonbuk is higher than those in other regions, Jeonbuk is advised to create an environment that promotes marriage. In particular, targeting those aged 30–34, the main childbearing age group, it needs to tailor its marriage support programs to them.

○ Third, the birth rate by age group in Jeonbuk is lower than those in other regions. Thus, it is imperative to formulate policies to encourage childbirth after marriage, especially for those aged 30–34 who are socially active, while effectively addressing the issues of career breaks and workplace disadvantages. To this end, Jeonbuk must develop the nation’s most childbirth- and parenting-friendly programs that ensure pre- and post-natal leave, spousal maternity leave, the ability to return to work after maternity leave, parental leave, and parenting time.

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